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Alex Smart Sports- NBA Afternoon Slam Dunk- Celtics @ Pacers

The Boston Celtics  and the Indiana Pacers go head to head in game 4 of their NBA play off series this Sunday afternoon. Join me as I explain how and why we cash this Side ticket and make the books pay for taking our action. Tips after 1:05 pm et

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 19, 2019
Maple Leafs vs Bruins
Maple Leafs
+130 at sportsbook
Won
$130
Play Type: Premium

The Leafs and the Bruins are in a tit for tat battle for their play off lives and tonight I like the value attached to the Leafs here .   In game 5 the Bruins got out to a 5-2 lead before the Leafs looked to rip into another gear yet seen from them in while, but still lost 6-4. Tonight Im betting that high octane attack that the Leafs can produce will be on full display and will get them to them a 3-2 lead in this series. The Bruins D, will stand tall but it wont be enough to get them out of this game without a loss.TORONTO is 20-6 ATS  off a loss by 2 goals or more to a division rival over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on the Maple Leafs to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 19, 2019
Braves vs Indians
Indians
-125 at 5Dimes
P
Play Type: Premium

TOUKI TOUSSAINT (R) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)

Atlanta is struggling having lost three in a row, while the Tribe despite of struggling at the plate at times this season continue to find ways to win and are on a 3 game win streak and have won 9 of their L/13, and get the nod again here tonight. The Indians are 8-0 SU with Corey Kluber at home when their opponent is on a 3+ loss streak, winning by an average of 6.9 runs per game. 

MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA3.33 or less), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 6-37 L/5 seasons for a go against  86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 19, 2019
Celtics vs Pacers
OVER 204½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

The two first games of this series have not gone of the Pacers way thanks to in ability to keep their offensive flow going and converting on easy shots, while also allowing them selves to get up in defensive affairs , which the Celtics are looking better at implementing . So tonight Im expecting more flow to the Pacers game as they look to resurrect their chances in this series/ With that said, Im betting  on a tilt that will feature more offence and a faster pace.

NBA team (BOSTON) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 60-29 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 19, 2019
Maple Leafs vs Bruins
UNDER 6 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Two Eastern Conference series ended this week in four-game sweeps, but the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs are battling it out in a series that has come down to a best two out of three. With these teams beating each other up and playing a more physical type of game plan, Im betting on more conservative efforts that base their respective attacks on transition, which will equate to less quality scoring opportunities and less goals going on the board.

Last time out these teams took part in the highest scoring affair of this series with the Bruins winning by a 6-4 count, but now Im betting both sides knowing this type of hockey is not sustainable or equitable to winning a tight series will revert back to being much more defensive minded in this game and going forward in this series.

TORONTO is 16-7 UNDER  revenging a loss where opponent scored 4 or more goals this season.BOSTON is 6-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game this season.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 19, 2019
Blazers vs Thunder
UNDER 222 -109 Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - POR Leads 2-0

The Oklahoma City Thunder have exhibited less than stellar shooting prowess all season long,ranking 22nd in in 3 point shooting and things are not getting much better, and have now shot a combined 10-61 (16.4%) from 3-point range in the first two games of this series. Tonight Im betting the Thunders long range futility will contribute to a lower scoring game as will Portlands horrendous 2nd to last play off FG% conversion rate vs a strong rim protection Thunder group.

PORTLAND is 21-9 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 10-1 UNDER  off a home win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 206.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 19, 2019
Astros vs Rangers
Astros
-1½ -135 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. DREW SMYLY (L)

With a 2-1 loss at Oakland on Wednesday, Houston saw its 10-game winning streak come to an end, but that game was a blip on an upward momentum chart and Im betting they rebound in a big way here today with Verlander on the hill for them.

DREW SMYLY the Texas starter is 0-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.741 he has seen his team lose all 4 of his career starts vs the ASTROS.

MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (HOUSTON) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after scoring 1 run or less are 42-1 L/5 seasons winning by an average of 3.7 rpg.

Play on Houston on the -1.5 RL

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 19, 2019
Raptors vs Magic
Raptors
-4½ -110 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The Raptors after losing game 1 came storming back with a convincing two way performance, crushing Orlando by a 111-82 count. After watching the Raptors dismantle, the Magic, Im betting the zig zag theory does not apply to this matchup. I know Orlando has had quite a 2nd half run ,but right now I feel the Dinos talent level and hunger for victory will trump what this young group has to offer.Note: NBA play off road favs are  30-11-1 against the spread over the last couple of seasons for a 73% conversion rate. I like this game alot and would bet it as high as -6. 

TORONTO is 33-19 ATS  in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 71-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raptors to cover

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 20, 2019
76ers vs Nets
UNDER 232 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

According to my projections  tell me we have value with an under wager here in this tilt between the Sixers and Nets. This total has gotten bigger with each game,  and now the linesmkaers have over adjusted . Brooklyn cant keep on just trying to run and gun and blow by the Sixers, and Im betting their coaching staff makes enough adjustments here today to thwart the Sixers flow. Afternoon games have a long term tendency of being played at a slower pace which Im betting this aids our under wager cashing.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 UNDER  in the 4th game of a playoff series since 1996.PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 UNDER off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 15-3 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road win, in April games are 51-27 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion .rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 20, 2019
Jets vs Blues
UNDER 5½ -125
Play Type: Premium

Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2

The Blues won Game 5 by a 3-2 margin Thursday in Winnipeg, overcoming a two-goal deficit in the third period and getting the winner from Jaden Schwartz with 15 seconds remaining in regulation. With this game being a do or die situation for one team and series clincher for the other Im expecting both sides to be extra careful with mistakes, which Im betting translates to total score that will remain on the low side of the total. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, DEFENCE sprinkled in with top tier goaltending has me recommending an under wager tonight in this tilt. 

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 20, 2019
#Braves vs #Indians
#Indians
-144 at pinnacle
P
Play Type: Premium

Atlanta is struggling having lost three in a row, while the Tribe despite of struggling at the plate at times this season continue to find ways to win and are on a 3 game win streak and have won 9 of their L/13, and get the nod again here tonight. The Indians are 8-0 SU with Corey Kluber at home when their opponent is on a 3+ loss streak, winning by an average of 6.9 runs per game. 

MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA3.33 or less), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 6-37 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 20, 2019
Jets vs Blues
Jets
+130 at Mirage
Play Type: Premium

Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2

This is a hard fought series between two pretty evenly matched teams. With the Jets on the verge of elimination I look for Winnipeg in all out desperation mode to keep the road team winning trend alive here in this game, and take this to a 7th game. 

WINNIPEG is 19-8 ATS  in road games in April games since 1996.WINNIPEG is 7-1 ATS  in road games after allowing 2 goals or more in the third period last game this season. Winnipeg is 8-1 SU L/9 here in St.Louis.

Play  on the Winnipeg Jets to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 20, 2019
Red Sox vs Rays
Red Sox
+130 at betonline
Play Type: Premium

RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)

Porcello has struggled out of the gate this season, but is still a viable hurler, who has pitched well at Tropicana in his career, going 8-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 15 starts. Meanwhile, TBs Morton who got off to fast start this season looked mortal after is off his shortest outing of the season where he went just 4 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays last time out. 

Value here on a Red Sox team that will be woken up out of their World Series hangover slumber vs a strong looking Rays team. 

BOSTON is 12-7 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP  2.000 or more over his last 3 starts are 17-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Red Sox on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 20, 2019
Bucks vs Pistons
Bucks
-8½ -107 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

This game and series between the Pistons and the Bucks is a complete mismatch, and the first two lopsided scores favoring Milwaukee were no flukes. No even home court advantage Im betting will save the Pistons from another beatdown.

MILWAUKEE is 7-0 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with the average margin of victory coming by 13 ppg.

MILWAUKEE is 8-1 ATS  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. 

MILWAUKEE is 14-3 ATS vs. division opponents this season with the average point differential clicking in at +13 ppg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.