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Alex Smart Alex Smart
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 20, 2019
Arkansas vs Auburn
Arkansas
+12 -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

The Razorbacks have struggled a little bit over the past week and have lost their last three games, but overall this team has been competitive and have tremendous talent on their bench thanks to one of the better recruiting classes in the nation and are viable dogs here at explosive Auburn. 

 Razorbacks are 12-13 SU at Auburn, but the 12 wins  ties for second-most by the Razorbacks  victories against any SEC team.The teams split the last four meetings but the Razorbacks have won 10 of the last 12. Head coach Mike Anderson is 8-2 versus Auburn as Arkansas head coach.

In the last three meetings between these sides the Hogs have started quickly and outscored the Tigers by almost 7 points going into the 2nd half.Im betting they will be all over the Tigers again, making them very solid underdogs here in this spot if my projections are correct. 

Some key matchup stats suggest Arkansas must not be disrespected here as underdogs. 

Arkansas is third in the SEC in turnover margin (2.6) and ranks second in turnovers forced (16.48) — which ranks 19th nationally.

Arkansas (1.17) and Auburn (1.16) rank 2-3 in the SEC in assist-to- turnover ratio,

Arkansas (406) and Auburn (379) rank 2-3 in the SEC in assists.

Auburn (9.1 avg) and Arkansas (8.1 avg) rank among the NCAA top 25 in steals.

CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (AUBURN) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games are 31-70 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 20, 2019
Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech
UNDER 128½ -109 Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

Gtech plays basketball at a methodical pace, behind a offence that can't produce with any consistency, and thus their games consistently go under as is evident by 9 of the L/10 staying below the offered totals number. Meanwhile, Pittsburghs strength is their ability to play decent defence, and have allowed just 67.2 ppg on the road this season while their offence has converted for under 67 ppg on the road while shooting a lowly 39.4 % from the Field. These teams most recent meetings have all stayed below this offered Total with a combined average of 118.6 ppg scored, and Im betting a similar output tonight. 

PITTSBURGH is 20-6 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 20-8 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. 

GEORGIA TECH is 10-1 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season with a combined average of 122.9 ppg scored. Pastner is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of GEORGIA TECH with a combined average of 121 ppg scored.

818 Georgia Tech / Pitt UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 20, 2019
Northwestern vs Ohio State
UNDER 128 -118 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 Northwestern is ranked first in the Big Ten and 12th nationally in three-point field goal defense, holding teams to 29.6 percent, with Ohio State sporting two top 15 down town shooters in their lineup this will be a pivotal factor in muting a lot of the Buckeyes scoreboard out put,  which in turn will  directly contribute to this being a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. Note: Northwestern D has allowed 59 points exact in 3 of their L/4 games and should once again be hard to score on here behind top tier rebounding work. Ohio Stats D, is also in top form having allowed 52,63-62 respectively in their L/3 tips to the hardwood. with all three going under the set total.  Tonight Im betting  this will be a hardcore physical defensive battle that stays under the set total.

NORTHWESTERN is 16-4 UNDER after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 126.2 ppg scored and s 6-0 UNDER after playing a game as a road underdog this season with a combined average 121 ppg scored. NORTHWESTERN is 8-0 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 125.4 ppg going on the board. 

CBB Home teams against the total (OHIO ST) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 38-17 UNDER L22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

814 Ohio State /Northwestern UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 20, 2019
Wichita State vs Tulsa
Tulsa
-2½ -111 at YouWager
Lost
$111.0
Play Type: Premium

  Greg Marshall’s Shockers basketball program is down quite. few notches this season,  for past incarnations, and are far from the dangerous opponent they have been in the recent past as they're AAC  12-11 SU would indicate. The Shockers have played better of late, but Im sure their in an emotional  letdown spot  after tangling with the Cincinnati Bearcats in a hard fought loss last time out and susceptible to a down effort in what will be back to back road games. Meanwhile Frank Haith’s Tulsa  team is out looking for revenge for a DD loss as visitors to Wichita earlier this month. It must be noted that the Canes are  14-1-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge, and  7-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Considering Wichita State is 0-16 L/16 SU in this series when made underdogs  I like our odds here for cashing a ticket on short chalk line. 

Play on Tulsa to cover 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.